The President’s budget for 2010 totals $3.55 trillion. Percentages in parentheses indicate percentage change compared to 2009. This budget request is broken down by the following expenditures:

Mandatory spending: $2.184 trillion (+15.6%)
$695 billion (+4.9%) – Social Security
$453 billion (+6.6%) – Medicare
$290 billion (+12.0%) – Medicaid
$0 billion (−100%) – Troubled Asset Relief Program (TARP)
$0 billion (−100%) – Financial stabilization efforts
$11 billion (+275%) – Potential disaster costs
$571 billion (−15.2%) – Other mandatory programs
$164 billion (+18.0%) – Interest on National Debt

US receipt and expenditure estimates for fiscal year 2010.Discretionary spending: $1.368 trillion (+13.1%)
$663.7 billion (+12.7%) – Department of Defense (including Overseas Contingency Operations)
$78.7 billion (−1.7%) – Department of Health and Human Services
$72.5 billion (+2.8%) – Department of Transportation
$52.5 billion (+10.3%) – Department of Veterans Affairs
$51.7 billion (+40.9%) – Department of State and Other International Programs
$47.5 billion (+18.5%) – Department of Housing and Urban Development
$46.7 billion (+12.8%) – Department of Education
$42.7 billion (+1.2%) – Department of Homeland Security
$26.3 billion (−0.4%) – Department of Energy
$26.0 billion (+8.8%) – Department of Agriculture
$23.9 billion (−6.3%) – Department of Justice
$18.7 billion (+5.1%) – National Aeronautics and Space Administration
$13.8 billion (+48.4%) – Department of Commerce
$13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of Labor
$13.3 billion (+4.7%) – Department of the Treasury
$12.0 billion (+6.2%) – Department of the Interior
$10.5 billion (+34.6%) – Environmental Protection Agency
$9.7 billion (+10.2%) – Social Security Administration
$7.0 billion (+1.4%) – National Science Foundation
$5.1 billion (−3.8%) – Corps of Engineers
$5.0 billion (+100%) – National Infrastructure Bank
$1.1 billion (+22.2%) – Corporation for National and Community Service
$0.7 billion (0.0%) – Small Business Administration
$0.6 billion (−14.3%) – General Services Administration
$19.8 billion (+3.7%) – Other Agencies
$105 billion – Other

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Last week the “financial Reform” bill passed Congress … but there was no mention of the 2 complicit GSE’s, Freddie Mac and Fannie Mae. They have cost $160B so far and will likely cost $1 TRILLION to clean up.

And the people that wrote this new bill?  The same people who DENIED over and over again that the GSE’s were just fine:

Rep Richard Baker (R-LA) asked in 2003 for more regulation of these corrupt giants.  Watch Rep Maxine Waters (D-CA) say “We do not have a criss at Freddie Mac, and particular at Fannie Mae, under the outstanding leadership of Franklin Raines” [later convicted of fraud, a current Obama advisor] .

Watch Rep Gregory Meeks (D-NY) say “there is nothing wrong”, “we don’t need it [regulation]“. Rep Lacy Clay (D-MO) called the hearings a “political lynching of Franklin Raines” (who happens to be an African American).  Rep Barney Frank (D-MA) says “I don’t see anything in this report that raises safety and soundness problems.”

Watch this if you can stomach the lies!

These same blockers received campaign donations (Obama was #1) from these GSE’s.  How can we believe anything will change?  I don’t

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Those who fail to learn from history are doomed to repeat it.

Listen to the wisdom of Reagan.

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If you can keep your head when all about you
Are losing theirs and blaming it on you

Rudyard Kipling

So-called “intelligent people” are continuing to call shots and give advice to the US President and Congress that is leading us straight over the financial cliff.

Obama claims that the root causes of our financial crisis are:  a) Bush, b) Wall Street, c) Banks, and d) Republicans.

Paul Krugman, like Obama, a Nobel-prize winner (which should say something about his credibility) is a perma-Keynesian who writes for the NY Times.  I noted recently that he has been one of the prime proponents of MASSIVE  borrowing and spending by the Federal government.

Now on Sunday the 27th, he warned we are entering a Depression.  He whines about the lack of spending from government:

“you might have expected policy makers to realize that they haven’t yet done enough to promote recovery. But no: over the last few months there has been a stunning resurgence of hard-money and balanced-budget orthodoxy.”

Gee Paul, what part of reckless spending don’t you understand?  He says that not spending is a deliberate mean-spirited act:

“the victory of an orthodoxy that has little to do with rational analysis, whose main tenet is that imposing suffering on other people is how you show leadership in tough times.”

It now seems that Krugman, Obama and his merry men are becoming a smaller and smaller voice, as governments all over the world wobble with crushing debts and deficits. Obama encouraged the G20 in Toronto to spend; they told him to pound sand.

Rebuffed, Obama still cannot bring himself to reduce government spending — rather we will see some wild-ass tax proposals.  As far as he is concerned, though federal expenditures are up 21% in the last 2 years, spending isn’t the problem. He wants to hike taxes, but knows he hasn’t got a chance before the November elections, so he sent a veiled warning  from Toronto:

“I hope some of these folks who are hollering about deficits and debt step up, because I’m calling their bluff, And we’ll see how much of the political arguments they’re making right now are real, and how much of it was just politics.”

Why wait? Well, he has to wait for his blue-ribbon debt commission to come back (after the election), so he can propose taxes, taxes, taxes .. to save us.  But that committee looks like there are some no-nonsense members, like Alan Simpson, who aren’t going to pussy foot around — so that may blow up on Obama.

Of course, the root causes of the financial crises are not, according to the government:

• Reckless government spending
• Unfunded programs: social security, medicare, prescription drugs
• Unfunded government union pensions
• A non-transparent and reckless Fed, who is trying experiments never tried before
• Freddie and Fannie, encouraged by Congress, backing ridiculous loans to anyone with a dog
• And did I mention? reckless government spending

The reality is that we cannot spending our way out of an over-spending problem, regardless of what Nobel-prize winning economists say.

Allan Meltzer writes in today’s WSJ: “Why Obamanomics Has Failed:

“Almost daily, Mr. Obama uses his rhetorical skill to castigate businessmen who have the audacity to hope for profitable opportunities. No president since Franklin Roosevelt has taken that route. President Roosevelt slowed recovery in 1938-40 until the war by creating uncertainty about his objectives. It was harmful then, and it’s harmful now.”

The solution? Reganomics anyone?

“The contrast with President Reagan’s antirecession and pro-growth measures in 1981 is striking. Reagan reduced marginal and corporate tax rates and slowed the growth of nondefense spending. Recovery began about a year later. After 18 months, the economy grew more than 9% and it continued to expand above trend rates.”

Are we too late to following recovery plans like Prices’s “Stop Reckless Spending” plan, or Paul Ryan’s “Roadmap for America’s Future“?

I’m afraid we will suffer a lot of pain before then.  Mish Sherlock wrote this week that “An Economic Depression is Here“. Congress and The Fed are to blame.

Hold tight … this won’t be fun.

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Is it a requirement of people who run for public office that they must abandon all sense of fiscal sanity? It would seem so.

A review of the headlines over the past 2 weeks shows us that Forrest Gump was right:

Stupid is as stupid does.

Where do we start?

Governments Borrowing to Pay Debts

What would happen to your family finances if you took out a Home Equity Loan to pay the mortgage?  It doesn’t take a rocket scientist to figure it out .. you will have more debt that you have to pay off down the road.  But it seems that governments all over the place have developed this very habit.  The Solution to Overspending on Credit? More Credit, of Course.

It started on June 11 when Gov Paterson of New York borrowed $6 Billion from the New York State pension fund to pay … the New York State pension fund!  Talk about dumb!  The pension fund plans to earn 8% on its investments, but is willing to lend it to the Government for a mere 4.5% – 5.5%!  Sort of stupid .. sort of really corrupt.  When the cows come home to roost on this one, God Bless New York!

Even more frightening to us all is the bottomless liability posed by Freddie and Fannie. Fannie-Freddie Fix at $160 Billion With $1 Trillion Worst Case. Now a Trillion is a lot of money. Rather than collapse these disasters and turn mortgage underwriting and insurance back to the private sector, these living dead will suck the blood out of us for years to come …

Government Drunk on Spending

I always preface drunken government spending comments with this quote from Ronald Reagan:

We could say [Democrats] spend money like drunken sailors, but that would be unfair to drunken sailors. It would be unfair, because the sailors are spending their own money.

Want to really get concerned?  Take a look at the US Debt Clock. The Total Debt Per Citizen sits at $175,281, or $669,993 per family.  Given income per family is only $62,445, it would take 10 years of working just for the government for us to pay of this debt.

Add liabilities of Social Security, Prescription Drugs, Medicare and other unfunded liabilities – the total liabilities per citizen rises to $352,617.  Assets are $235,844.  So we are technically bankrupt. We are short $116,773 per man, woman and child in the country!!

Government Ignoring Need to Stop Spending

Encouraged by Keynesian economists like Paul Krugman who wrote even this week: The Bad Logic Of Fiscal Austerity.  He argues that borrowing a $1 Trillion and paying the interest is affordable and

not much cost to pay for generating jobs when they’re badly needed and avoiding disastrous cuts in government services.

Ah! The last thing we can do is stop government spending!  If in fact government spending was actually positive, then is there a limit?  Why not spend as much as we can borrow? (Oops! I think they are already doing that!!)  Now don’t think you have permission to argue with this Nobel Laureate or the anointed economic elite.  You just don’t “get it”.

During the last 5 years, governments have increased their spending and hiring by leaps and bounds, while their revenues have shrink.  According to the Krugman crowd, this makes sense.

Who is Footing the Bill?

But you will pay the bills.  I extracted some figures from the Debt Clock to create the following analysis:

Private industry workers (who pay ALL the bills) comprise 51% of all people working, unemployed, retired or working for governments.  Government employees, who are 14% of this total, consume over 30% of the GDP.  So 1/2 of us have to pay for the other half … BUT WAIT!

Only 1/2 of us who file tax returns pay federal taxes!  If we assume this is evenly distributed among private industry workers, we have 1/4 of the population paying for the largess of government!

I don’t think this ends well.  It can’t. It doesn’t make sense. And when you need a Princeton PhD to explain why it does, I know it doesn’t.

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The Federal government (through the quasi-private Federal Reserve Bank) is the only level of our government who can coin money. So profligate spenders at state, county and local levels are going bankrupt , especially under the weight of bloated salaries and pensions for pubic workers.

Mish reports a story of the pending bankruptcy in Miami.

The city of Miami is in such financial dire straits that commissioner Marc Sarnoff is using the “B” word, bankruptcy.

“We are not the only city, municipality to be going through this. It looks like Los Angeles sometime next week or the week after will be going bankrupt. It looks like there will be 30 more cities following suit.”

Increases in public worker salaries is one of the main reasons why the budget is so tight. The average salary for a Miami city employee is $76,000. The average salary for a Miami city resident is $29,000.

Employee pensions are choking the budget too. In 2000, pension payouts cost taxpayers $16 million. In 2009 that number spiked up to $70 million.

Not un-coincidentally, state governements all over are cutting pay, payrolls and crushing pension benefits:

• Education Minnesota Drops Opposition to Curbing Benefits
• The Atlantic reports: Public Pensions Headed for Disaster
• New York City’s pension contribution for 2011 is projected at $7 billion, more than 10% of the entire budget.
• Even the New York Times cries: Padded Pensions Add to New York Fiscal Woes

more than 100 retired police officers and firefighters are collecting pensions greater than their pay when they were working. One of the youngest, Hugo Tassone, retired at 44 with a base pay of about $74,000 a year. His pension is now $101,333 a year.

This widespread and obscene theft of public money is unsustainable and is crashing down all over … as it must.

EXCEPT …. to the rescue is the nanny of all nannies – the bottomless pit of money from the Federal government:  Sen Bob Casey (D-NJ) has proposed bill S.3157 to “save” public pensions .. those pensions that pay public workers 2-4 times the average private individual … with the money from .. you got it .. the poorer private individuals.

I think few in the private sector voted for this “fundamental change” in America — where private individuals are plundered for the benefit of overpaid public workers.  This has to end NOW, or it will crash in an ugly fashion.

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Here you go, from the Fraser Institute in Canada.

• The Canadian Consumer Tax Index tracks the total tax bill of the average Canadian family from 1961 to 2009. The total tax bill of the average Canadian family, including all types of taxes, has increased by 1,624 percent since 1961.
• Taxes have grown much more rapidly than any other single expenditure for the average Canadian family. In contrast to the jump in taxes, spending on shelter increased by 1,198 percent, food by 559 percent, and clothing by 526 percent from 1961 to 2009.
• In 1961, the average family had an income of $5,000 and paid a total tax bill of $1,675 (33.5 percent). In 2009, the average Canadian family earned an income of $69,175 and paid total taxes equaling $28,878 (41.7 percent).
• The average Canadian family now spends more of its income on taxes than it does on the basic necessities such as food, shelter, and clothing. In 1961, the average family used 56.5 percent of its income on basic necessities, while only 33.5 percent of the family’s income went to taxes. In 2009, the proportion of income consumed by taxes had increased (to 41.7 percent), while the fraction of income spent on food, shelter, and clothing had dropped dramatically (to 37.1 percent).

Why Canada?  Everyone that I meet in the USA says: “Why can’t we have the economy (motored by oil), the health care (run by governments) and the economic stability (Run by excessive taxation) like they have in your home country of Canada?”

Canada is another one of the “canaries in the coal mine” about the creeping socialism all over the world.  Greece, Spain, Italy … somewhere down the line is Canada and the USA.

The report continues on …

Including deferred taxes (deficits) means the tax bill of the average Canadian family has increased by 1,793 percent since 1961.

Yikes!  I just don’t get it!  Governments all over have been spending FAR MORE than they can afford, racking up, especially, future pension liabilities for everyone …. then when the economy collapses, we do a bail-out.

Imagine what is going through the mind now of an average frugal German .. who is asked to bail out Greece.  Greeks are living far beyond the means … but will they cuts liabilities? not when Germans will send them cash.

I chatted with a friend last evening who told me that he had a huge sum in municipal bonds. I cautioned him, noting that Central Falls RI went bankrupt this week, and many states SHOULD follow.  His response: “Oh, the Federal government will just bail them out of the bonds get in trouble.”  He said this after a 20 minute rant on the size and invasiveness of government.

We all may be capitalists, but but we like the nanny state.  Until we throw out the bums who would spend and tax us to oblivion, and change this attitude … we are screwed.  But, on the horizon, I expect we will see more Chris Christie’s — honest, straight-talking politicians who aren’t in government to line their own pockets.

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Thanks to nopc.info for the summary:

Summary Timeline for Major Items in Senate Health Care Bill

Provisions that take effect immediately upon enactment:

Insurance Regulations

• Prohibition on pre-existing condition exclusions for private insurance on the individual market.
• Prohibition on revoking insurance for patients who falsify applications to fraudulently obtain private insurance coverage (however, penalties for fraud against federal health programs are increased).

Taxes

• “Annual Fee” tax on prescription drugs of $2.3 billion, allocated according to market share.
• New 10% tax on indoor tanning services effective July 1, 2010.

Other

• New restrictions on not-for-profit hospitals.

Special Favors

• Special tax benefit for BCBS organizations that maintain medical loss ratios of at least 85%.

Medicare

• Physician payments decrease 21% effective March 1, 2010.

Provisions that take effect six months after enactment:

Insurance Regulations

• Group and Individual policies issued after this date may not contain lifetime coverage limits, must provide first-dollar coverage for preventive care as defined by the U.S. Preventive Services Task Force, and must cover “children” of primary policyholders up to age 26.

Taxes

• FSA plans limited to $2,500 per year (currently no limit).
• New limits on what health care can be paid for with FSA, HSA, and HRA funds.
• Deduction for Part D eliminated.
• “Annual Fee” tax on medical devices of $2.0 billion, allocated according to market share (rises to $3.0 billion after 2017).
• “Annual Fee” tax on health insurance, allocated according to share of total premiums. Begins at $2 billion in 2011, then increases to $4 billion in 2012, $7 billion in 2013, $9 billion in the years 2014, 2015, and 2016, and eventually $10 billion for 2017 and every year thereafter. Two insurers in Nebraska and one in Michigan are exempt from this tax.

Medicare

• 10% Bonus for primary care physicians and general surgeons.
• Restrictions and substantial cuts to Medicare Advantage plans.

Medicaid

• Allows states to expand eligibility to 133% of the federal poverty line (FPL) for childless adults.

Other

• Private health plans must maintain a “medical loss ratio” of at least 85%. Failing that, they may rebate policyholders or increase medical expenditures. “Annual fee” tax does not count toward this ratio.
• First phase of small business tax credit for certain qualified small employers.

Taxes

• “Annual Fee” tax on health insurance increases to $4 billion.

Medicare

• Payment penalties for hospitals with the highest readmission rates for selected conditions.

Other

• Health insurance company employees may not be paid more than $500,000 per year.

Tax Increases

• “Annual Fee” tax on health insurance increases to $7 billion (does not count toward the required 85% medical loss ratio).
• 40% excise tax on health insurance premiums above $8,500 (individual plans) or $23,000 (family plans). Higher thresholds apply to the 17 highest-cost states until 2015, and indefinitely to retirees over age 55, and employer-provided plans for certain professions. This tax does not count toward the required 85% medical loss ratio.
• Itemized deduction for out-of-pocket medical expenses is limited to expenses over 10% of AGI (currently 7.5%); those over age 65 can use the 7.5% rate until 2016.
• Medicare tax increased from 2.9% to 3.8% for incomes over $250,000 (joint filers) or $200,000 (all others). (This is stated as an increase of 0.9 percentage points, to only the employee’s share of the FICA tax.)

Primary health reform takes effect:

Tax Increases

• “Annual Fee” tax on health insurance increases to $9 billion (does not count toward the required 85% medical loss ratio).
• Individual mandate begins: Tax penalties for not having insurance begin at $95 or 0.5% of income, whichever is higher, rising to $495 or 1% of income in 2015 and $750 or 2% of income thereafter (indexed for inflation after 2016). These penalties are per adult, half that amount per child, to a maximum of three times the per-adult amount per family. The penalty is capped at the national average premium for the “bronze” plan.
• Employer mandate begins:
– Provide “qualified” insurance or pay $750 tax per employee.
– Even if qualified insurance is provided, pay $3,000 tax per employee who qualifies for “affordability credit” (premium subsidy) based on family income and size, and opts to accept it.

Other

• Strict federal regulation of health plan benefit packages, premiums, and rating rules for both Exchange-participating and employer-sponsored group health plans.
• Imposition of actuarial value restrictions (in addition to restriction on medical loss ratio in effect since 2011).
• Health Insurance Exchanges.
• OPM-managed plans for the general public (in lieu of public option).
• “Affordability Credits” to those with family income under four times FPL who do not qualify for Medicaid in their state.

Medicaid

• Medicaid eligibility expanded to 133% of FPL for everyone under age 65 in participating states (such as Nebraska).
• All states except Nebraska must pay a share of the cost or drop Medicaid.

Tax Increases

• Individual mandate penalty rises to $495 per adult ($247.50 per child), maximum $1,485 per family, or 1% of family income, whichever is higher (capped at the national average premium for the “bronze” plan).

Insurance Regulations

• Limits on deductibles and co-payments imposed on Exchange-participating and employer-sponsored group health plans ($2,000 for single plans, $4,000 for family plans, indexed for inflation in health insurance premiums).

Medicare • Establishment of Independent Medicare Advisory Board (IMAB) to recommend cuts in Medicare benefits; these cuts will go into effect automatically unless Congress passes, and the President signs, an override bill.

Other

• Second phase of small business tax credit for certain qualified small employers.

Tax Increases

• 40% excise tax on health insurance premiums above $8,500 (individual plans) or $23,000 (family plans) applied to remaining 17 states.
• Individual mandate penalty rises to $750 per adult ($375 per child), maximum $2,250 per family, or 2% of family income, whichever is higher (capped at the national average premium for the “bronze” plan). After 2016, the penalty will be increased each year to adjust for inflation.
• “Annual Fee” tax on health insurance increases to $10 billion (does not count toward the required 85% medical loss ratio).
• Itemized deduction for out-of-pocket medical expenses is limited to expenses over 10% of AGI for those over age 65.

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Rasmussen’s monthly summary shows that the Great One (NO!, not Wayne Gretzky!) Obama got a pop in popularity.

They also note that the “pop” in the index (which is created by subtracting strongly disapprove from strongly approve among likely voters) is almost 100% due to more energy from Democrats.

In other words, a partisan bill gets partisan support.

However, that increased enthusiasm has come at a cost among unaffiliated voters. Among those not affiliated with either major party, just 23% Strongly Approve of the President’s performance while 48% Strongly Disapprove (see other recent demographic highlights).

So there is hope this socialist nightmare will come to an end in November, as Obama, Pelosi and Reid spend America into the poor house.  Some of the headlines from the week:

Obama: U.S. Would Go Bankrupt Without Health Reform

Obama said in a nationally broadcast interview Friday he isn’t worried that his bold reach for a $1.3 trillion, 10-year makeover might cause his public approval ratings to plummet.

Let’s keep them plumetting!

States have $5.17 Trillion in Pension Obligations, Gap is $3.23 Trillion; State Debt as Share of GDP

Really?  Can we spend our way to prosperity?   Try:
Legends of the Fall: The Real and Imagined Sources of Our Bubble Economy

Ronald Reagan said:

We could say [Democrats] spend money like drunken sailors, but that would be unfair to drunken sailors. It would be unfair, because the sailors are spending their own money.

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